LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Flat trading

Posted by Danny on August 22, 2016

Stock went mostly flat for another week and have ended the lunar red period with a 17 point gain for Nasdaq. More often than not sideways price action resumes in the direction of the existing trend, and with a new green period starting we could easily get another push to new highs in the coming weeks. This is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily)  11_20_2014 - 8_19_2016

The technical situation is not clear cut. The slower Earl2 (orange line) has turned down, which is a warning sign. But the faster Earl (blue line) is just below the neutral and may turn up for another brief spurt higher. If so I would look for 5300-5400 as a possible zone for a peak.
A failure to rally would probably send the market the other way and then Nasdaq may face a drop to 5000-5100.
There is no easy play to make at this point, so I would just stick to long term positions and wait for better setups when it comes to swing trades. Looks like another good week to stay on the beach rather than in front of a monitor.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: | 3 Comments »

Outlook for Week of August 22

Posted by Danny on August 22, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

* The latest weekly reversal levels for over 2500 stocks and ETF can be found every weekend at http://www.reversallevels.com/.

* For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available as a monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 2500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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Quiet summer trading

Posted by Danny on August 15, 2016

Stocks continue their steady march higher, without any letup. Maybe we will see some selling this week, as we continue to be in a lunar red period. But where are the sellers supposed to come from? Investors who have been long probably see no reason to sell.
Let’s have a look at the S&P 500:

^SP500 (Daily)  12_5_2014 - 8_12_2016

S&P has been moving sideways with an upward bias and keeps printing marginal new highs. This slowdown in momentum is being picked up by the Earl2 (orange line), which has turned down from a weak peak, painting a bearish divergence. The faster Earl (blue line) is climbing again, but could soon paint a bearish divergence as well. None of this guarantees a pullback anytime soon, but from a shorter term perspective I prefer to stand aside with this kind of setup.
If we get a dip then I would still look for support at the 2130 level. What happens at that point would give us useful clues going forward. Until then, just stay on the beach and enjoy the swim or the surf.

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Outlook for Week of August 15

Posted by Danny on August 15, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

* The latest weekly reversal levels for over 2500 stocks and ETF can be found every weekend at http://www.reversallevels.com/.

* For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available as a monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 2500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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No letup

Posted by Danny on August 8, 2016

Stock markets kept pushing higher and the recent lunar green period added 121 points to the Nasdaq. Will there be no letup?
Of course the market cannot keep climbing without any pullbacks, so we will get a letup and probably sooner rather than later. Lunar cycles have not done well so far this year, but the recent green period could mark the return of some normalcy in that department. A new red period is getting underway, so we will find out soon. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily)  11_3_2014 - 8_5_2016

The Nasdaq has come very close to its all time high and may break it any day. But my technical indicators are indicating potential problems. The faster Earl (blue line) keeps weakening and may paint a bearish divergence soon. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is flattening out and may turn down any day. The MoM is starting to pull back from a major peak in the +8 euphoric zone. That’s not a setup I want to buy, especially not when a new lunar red period is starting.
The LT wave for August is also indicating weakness after a possible top today (+/-1 day).

I wouldn’t be too greedy at this point. It has been a great rally over the last 6 weeks, but trees don’t grow into the sky. I will take some profits here and then see when the next buying opportunity comes along.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for Week of August 8

Posted by Danny on August 7, 2016

News: we have set up a new page on Facebook for reversal levels. Just like the page to get our free stuff in your timeline.

***

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

* The latest weekly reversal levels for over 2500 stocks and ETF can be found every weekend at http://www.reversallevels.com/.

* For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available as a monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 2500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for August

Posted by Danny on August 1, 2016

Another sideways week for US stock markets. That’s strong price action after the recent run-up because usually you would see more give-back. A sideways period after a strong rally is typically followed by higher highs, but other than surprises nothing is ever guaranteed in stock markets. Let’s have a look at the current setup in S&P 500:

^SP500 (Daily)  10_28_2014 - 7_29_2016

Overbought conditions have subsided gradually by sideways price action and the faster Earl (blue line) is already back in bottom region. If it turns up here then we will get another leg up, and that’s my current base scenario. A jump to 2200+ is becoming more likely by the day. Slower Earl2 (orange line) is still climbing, leaving room for further upside action. We also remain in a lunar green period for the rest of the week. So, I still wouldn’t bet against this market, but of course we will inevitably get a pullback at some point.

Time for our monthly LT wave chart. The wave did fairly well in July. Expected strength until the 11th panned out nicely and even carried on for a few more days. Weakness after the 13th came in the form of a sideways range, which is a possibility I mentioned in my post. We actually got one of the narrowest ranges for S&P 500 since at least 1970. The reason why I suspected a sideways move can be seen in the LT wave for August:

ltwaveAug2016

The largely neutral LT wave readings in the 2nd half of July are followed by a major LT wave peak in the first week of August. The highest values come on the 6th and 7th, which are weekend days. In that case a high may come on Friday 5th or on Monday 8th. But it’s never good to rely too much on the exact timing. If there is a record high on the 5th or 8th then I would use it to take some profits. If not, then the rally may just stretch itself into new highs on the final days of August, when LT goes up again. It’s important not to get married to a fixed outcome based on the LT wave. If it works 60% of the time I am more than happy already.
We get a series of LT wave low values between August 11th and 26th, which is when I would expect a pullback.

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Outlook for Week of August 1

Posted by Danny on August 1, 2016

News: we have set up a new page on Facebook for reversal levels. Just like the page to get easy access to our daily and weekly free stuff.

***

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

* The latest weekly reversal levels for over 2500 stocks and ETF can be found every weekend at http://www.reversallevels.com/.

* For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available as a monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 2500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Not an easy path forward

Posted by Danny on July 25, 2016

Markets kept up very well last week and stocks are still not in the mood for any pullback. That will obviously change some day, but when? I don’t know how many under water shorts are still waiting for a decent chance to get out, but that could be one of the reasons why this market has refused to pull back since its new record highs.
Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

^COMP (Daily)  10_27_2014 - 7_22_2016

While the S&P 500 is at new highs the Nasdaq still has quite a few hurdles in front of it before it can do the same. The 5100-5200 area is heavy overhead resistance in this index.
The Earl index (blue line) has started pulling back from a major high, but the market is not coming along. Meanwhile a new lunar green period is starting, which normally favors further gains. But the lunar cycle hasn’t worked well so far this year, so we better be careful. The slower Earl2 (orange line) is still headed higher, suggesting further gains in the pipeline.
I see a very mixed technical picture, so I am not going to commit too strongly either way at this point. The short term momentum is clearly up, but that can change very quickly. We will probably get more clarity soon.

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for Week of July 25

Posted by Danny on July 25, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

* The latest weekly reversal levels for over 2500 stocks and ETF can be found every weekend at http://www.reversallevels.com/.

* For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available as a monthly subscription. It comes as a daily html file covering over 2500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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