LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

LT wave for July

Posted by Danny on June 29, 2015

Markets have stayed nervous, and for good reason. The weekend developments in Greece are causing big moves in world markets today. Will this push the US markets out of the sideways range they have occupied for months? Maybe. Let’s have a look at the situation in the Nasdaq (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

The market turned down in the middle of the week and is about to test the support near 5000 again. A drop below this level would violate the weak up trend that is in place since the start of the year. A drop to 4800 becomes likely in that case. We remain in a lunar red period, so a further drop is certainly not out of the question.
Technically we still have a very uncertain and mixed picture. The Earl (blue line) and the MoM indicator are going down, but the slower Earl2 has quietly turned up from another shallow bottom. That doesn’t help us much. As I have been pointing out in my weekly outlook for months, we have to remain cautious until a clear direction emerges.

The month is not over yet, but some people are asking for the next LT wave already. By the middle of Jue a reader wrote me to tell how terrible the LT wave was doing. But now a few weeks later it doesn’t look that bad at all. People just shouldn’t expect perfection. The LT wave doesn’t work all the time, but it seems to work more often than not. Here is the LT wave for July, also showing how it did for June (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

Last month we called for a weak start with a really strong period starting around the 15th and renewed weakness in the final days of the month. That is exactly what we got.
For July the LT wave projects continued weakness until the 4th, followed by a strong period that stretches until the 24th. The final week of July looks weaker again.

Danny

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Outlook for Week of June 29, 2015

Posted by Danny on June 28, 2015

Outlook for world markets with my comments for next week. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you are looking for the free weekly reversal levels for over 1500 stocks and ETF, they are now available at www.ReversalLevels.com every weekend.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries you can use our daily reversal levels, which are available every day as premium info on Scutify.com for just a few $. We cover over 1500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 1 Comment »

Buy Athens

Posted by Danny on June 22, 2015

The Nasdaq reached new all time highs last week, the S&P 500 and the Dow didn’t. Meanwhile all eyes are on Greece and on how its standoff with the EU gets resolved. More on that at the end of this post. Let’s have a look at the S&P chart first (click image to enlarge it):

S&P 500

The S&P 500 is trying to rally to new highs. Price action remains confined to the very narrow range that started in March. A breakout above 2150 would tell us that the bull market continues. But that remains to be seen because we are just starting a new lunar red period.
Technically it doesn’t look bad. The Earl (blue line) and MoM indicators are going up nicely and the slower Earl2 (orange line) is tentatively turning up from a shallow bottom. But can the market do it? It is still in the balance.
The lunar cycle has correctly pointed the way all year and is now 12 for 12 in 2015. But that streak will not last forever. Sooner or later we will have a red period in which the market climbs strongly, or a green period in which the market drops significantly. And whichever comes first is likely to show us the direction of the next major move in the US markets. Lunar cycles tend to show up most clearly in a sideways market (like we have had this year). When the market is in a strong bull or bear trend the lunar cycles are more easily overcome by the broader trend. That’s why we now look for the first failed lunar period to bring us some important indication.

Will news from Greece push global stock markets one way or the other? Maybe. As chart of the week we will have a look at the Greek stock market. I have commented on the Greek crisis on a few occasions. In February 2012 I pointed out that news of a 130 billion Greek bailout was a contrarian sell signal. That turned out to be a good call, as in the next 6 months there were two significant sell-offs in US markets. Here is what I wrote back then:

The media will try to sell the new bailout of Greece as good news, but is it?
1) This Euro 130 billion bailout amounts to Euro 12000 (~ $16000) for every person in the country. What is it going to be used for? Is it going to be “spent”? Or is it going to be put into some productive investments? If so, which ones?
2) How is it going to be payed back? By whom?
3) And what if Portugal or Spain demand similar “help”?

All questions that are still equally relevant today, now more than 3 years later.

I picked up the Greece theme again in September 2012, pointing out a major buying opportunity based on my Earl indicators. Greek stocks more than doubled in the ensuing 18 months, so that panned out nicely.

And here we are, with Greek stocks once again hitting rock bottom levels. This is a weekly chart for the Athens stock exchange (ASE) (click image to enlarge it):

Athens

The index stays well above the lows it reached in mid-2012. All my indicators are showing major bullish divergences. That doesn’t mean lower lows are not possible, but this is the kind of setup that favors a significant rally in the medium to long term.
I would buy with one hand if Greece stays in the euro, and buy with both hands if it leaves the euro. First upside target is near 1500, and if it gets above that resistance then look for 3000+ in the longer term.

Danny

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Outlook for Week of June 22, 2015

Posted by Danny on June 21, 2015

Outlook for world markets with my comments for next week. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you are looking for the free weekly reversal levels for over 1500 stocks and ETF, they are now available at www.ReversalLevels.com every weekend.
For shorter term trading and more optimal entries you can use our daily reversal levels, which are available every day as premium info on Scutify.com for just a few $. It covers over 1500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Going nowhere

Posted by Danny on June 15, 2015

Another sideways week in US markets and still no clarity about when another major move will start. Looking at the Nasdaq chart we just see a coiling market (click for larger image):

Nasdaq

Technical indicators are all close to neutral, giving us no clear indications. Perhaps investors are waiting for the outcome of Greek negotiations or the next Fed meeting before doing anything. News items may force a breakout from this sideways range eventually. But it is also possible that the market starts moving for no good reason whatsoever. Buying (or selling) may dry up completely at some point, which can suddenly leave the market with only one way to go. That’s how a sizable trending move can emerge from this kind of “dead” market. So, all we can do is keep our eyes open and wait.
We remain in a lunar green period this week, which favors the odds for another rally attempt.

Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for Week of June 15, 2015

Posted by Danny on June 15, 2015

Outlook for world markets with my comments for next week. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.
If you are looking for the free weekly reversal levels for over 1500 stocks and ETF, they are now available at www.ReversalLevels.com every weekend.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

Close to the breaking point

Posted by Danny on June 8, 2015

Stocks declined last week, and the lunar red period ended with a 23 point loss. The lunar cycle has been working like a Swiss clock so far this year. All green periods have been profitable with a total gain of 562 points on Nasdaq, and all red periods have generated declines for a total loss of 257 points. It doesn’t get any better. But this winning streak will end eventually, maybe as soon as the new green period that has now started.
Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 (click image to enlarge it):

S&P 500

Stocks have pulled back, but remain within the very narrow range that started in March. There is no decisive breakout yet. This is also reflected in the Earl2 indicator (orange line), which has been converging towards neutral for 6 months, not giving us much of a clue about the next major move. The faster Earl (blue line) is in bottom territory, but not turning up yet.
With a new lunar green period underway, a rally attempt may be up next, but it is possible that the S&P will drop to major support at 2050 first. So, if you are looking for a chance to buy I would wait for the Earl and MoM indicators to turn up.
The market is close to a breaking point, and the reversal levels are also flashing warning signs for several markets (see my weekend outlook). But, coming close to a breaking point doesn’t mean the market has to break. It is fairly common for markets to go the edge before rebounding. All we can do is keep our eyes open.

Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: | 2 Comments »

Outlook for Week of June 8, 2015

Posted by Danny on June 8, 2015

Outlook for world markets with my comments for next week. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then you can also click here.

Happy trading, Danny

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | 2 Comments »

Weekly Reversal Levels for June 6, 2015

Posted by Danny on June 6, 2015

Keeping an eye on the bigger picture once a week is helpful because trading in the direction of the weekly trend has better odds of being profitable. Below are the weekly reversal levels for over 1500 stocks and ETF. Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries you can use our daily reversal levels, which are available every day as premium info on Scutify.com for just a few $. The current version is a 54 page PDF with the latest reversal levels and buy or sell signals for over 1500 stocks from Dow Composite, Nasdaq 100, S&P 500, S&P 400 mid caps, S&P 600 small caps, and more than 100 popular ETF. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Note: If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, or if you want to download the PDF file for offline use, then you can click here.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for June

Posted by Danny on June 1, 2015

US markets keep going sideways. Since early April the S&P 500 has been hovering within a narrow 70 point range, or a little over 3%. That is very unusual. The Nasdaq is still hesitating just below its all time record highs. Here is the current chart (click image to enlarge it):

Nasdaq

We are in a lunar red period and stocks have come under some mild pressure. The Earl indicator (blue line) is pointing down, while the slower Earl2 (orange line) is tentatively going up. The stalemate continues and perhaps it will take a new record high on the Nasdaq to end this sideways saga. The old high still stands at 5132.52, dating back to March 10, 2000.
Months of sideways action has probably put a lot of investors in rather neutral mode, and that sets the stage for a significant trending move once the market makes up its mind.

We are starting a new month, so here is the LT wave chart for June (click image to enlarge it):

LT wave

The LT wave for May did quite well again. The low and the high for the month matched the expected pattern beautifully.
For June the wave projects another weak start, with a really strong period starting around the 15th. The final days of the month could show renewed weakness. Lowest values come on the 4th and on the 30th, and the highest LT wave reading will come on the 18th. Let me remind again that this LT wave is experimental and will not always work as well as it has done in recent months.

Good luck,
Danny

Posted in Financial Astrology, Market Commentary | Tagged: , | 4 Comments »

 
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