LunaticTrader

Investing with the Moon

Outlook for Week of December 5

Posted by Danny on December 4, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

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LT wave for December

Posted by Danny on November 28, 2016

Stocks have kept going up and the Nasdaq is reaching the 5400 level, as we suggested it would in our post two weeks ago. So, what’s next? Let’s have a look at the S&P 500 chart:

sp500-daily-2_27_2015-11_25_2016

We stay in a lunar green period for the rest of the week, so we can prepare for some kind of top in the coming days.
Technically the S&P 500 is facing several overhead resistance levels between 2220 and 2300. I don’t think we are going to race straight through them, but of course I could be wrong.
My Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down already, and the MoM is entering the “euphoric” +8 zone. As you can see in the chart MoM reaching +8 often marks major peaks, which are typically followed by a significant pullback or by several months of sideways churning. MoM reaching -8 typically marks tradeable bottoms. Nothing is perfect but this is something that works pretty persistently in any market. MoM indicator for various markets and stocks is posted on my Twitter every day.
On the plus side the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still climbing healthily and appears in no mood to turn down already. This could be enough to hold up the market into year’s end. It makes it more likely that we will get sideways action with only marginal new highs being printed in December. So, that is my current base scenario.

Let’s also have a look at the LT wave for December:

ltwavedec2016

The wave did quite well for November. The timing was not perfect as the expected low came a few days earlier than the wave suggested. But of course we can conveniently blame that on the US elections. The overall pattern worked out nicely with expected weakness early on and a positive bias for the second half of November. For December the pattern is not so outspoken as it hovers close to neutral with small swings up and down. The longer average (yellow) peaks out in the first week and then goes more or less flat. There is a slightly weak period in the second week and another weak period comes around Christmas when markets will be mostly closed. The middle of the month and the final days look a bit stronger.
As always, remember this LT wave is experimental and doesn’t rely on any market data, so use it wisely.

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Outlook for Week of November 28

Posted by Danny on November 27, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , | Leave a Comment »

Outlook for Week of November 21

Posted by Danny on November 21, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

The next leg up

Posted by Danny on November 14, 2016

Stocks performed a major turnaround last week and are breaking out to the upside. Chances are good that markets will keep rallying into year’s end. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

comp-daily-2_23_2015-11_11_2016

The October highs are likely to offer some resistance. But all my indicators have turned up from major lows. And there is further room to rise. We will also start a new lunar green period later this week. A climb towards 5400-5500 is a reasonable expectation. A revisit of the 5000 level would not look good. If that happens we will have to re-evaluate the picture.

The number of bullish stocks in the S&P 500 is also back above 300:

spx

This number had been signalling weakness since late August and was stuck in a downward trend. We would want to see this number get back above 400 (=80%) if this rally is for real. That’s also what we had in February and July. A drop back below 250 (=50%) bullish stocks would put question marks behind the bullish thesis. When there are important changes in this indication I usually post them on Twitter, as I recently did here: https://twitter.com/lunatictrader1/status/791993232792092673

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Outlook for Week of November 14

Posted by Danny on November 13, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

A very clear situation

Posted by Danny on November 7, 2016

Stocks have come under increasing pressure and important support levels are slowly giving way. The recent lunar green period ended with a 190 point loss for the Nasdaq, one of the worst green periods this year, and continuing the pattern of lunar cycle inversion we have seen all year. As we have been pointing out for weeks, the path of least resistance has turned down. But will it stay that way? Let’s have a look at the S&P 500:

sp500-daily-1_26_2015-11_4_2016

The important 2120 support level has not held up the market and I would now expect 2120 to become overhead resistance for any upward move. This index has dropped to the lower bound of the down trend channel we pictured a few weeks ago. This means it is still not a break down from which it is hard to come back. But it offers us a very clear situation now.
If the S&P drops any further, say below 2070, then we are likely to get a downside acceleration with the first meaningful support just under 2000. If on the hand the S&P bounces back and makes a convincing move above the 2120-2140 zone, then the road towards new highs would open up.
My 3 indicators are all in bottom territory, but not turning up yet. The MoM is entering the blue-depressed zone, which normally happens only a few times a year. We just don’t know yet when and where it will turn back up. But I will be ready for it.

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Outlook for Week of November 7

Posted by Danny on November 6, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

LT wave for November

Posted by Danny on October 31, 2016

Stocks came under some pressure last week and the S&P 500 is struggling to stay above the important 2120 support level. As we pointed out last week, price action has been weak and there is nothing going on as long as there is no clear breakout, up or down. We are still in that situation but now my indicators are starting to turn down, suggesting that a breakout to the downside is gradually becoming the more likely scenario. Here is the current Nasdaq chart:

comp-daily-2_5_2015-10_28_2016

Earl and MoM indicators have turned down after a very weak rally attempt and the slower Earl2 is languishing at low levels, apparently unable to get back above the zero line. The lunar green period will be ending later his week and it looks like we will be lucky if it ends near breakeven for the period. This suggests the path of least resistance is down.

Looking at the LT wave chart for November offers more reason for caution:

ltwavenov2016

We got the expected weakness in the first half of October, but the positive bias after the 15th was very weak. Most of the peak LT wave values happened to come on weekend days when markets are closed, but the other days didn’t produce any convincing green candles either.
Going into November the wave tries to hold up in the first days, but then shows a drop with weakness to continue until around the 17th. The rest of the month is hardly above neutral. The lowest LT wave value for the month comes on the 10th, and the high is projected for the 19th.
Does this mean the market will crash? No. Does this have anything to do with the upcoming US election? No. Four years ago when Obama was re-elected the S&P 500 dropped 6% in the next two weeks. I guess that whoever wins the election, some half of the population will be disappointed and may see it as a good reason to sell stocks. Everything is possible and there is no guarantee whatsoever that the projected LT wave pattern will pan out.

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Outlook for Week of October 31

Posted by Danny on October 30, 2016

Outlook for world markets with brief comments for next week.

If you have any trouble to see the presentation below, then click here.

Click the “Expand” button (bottom right) to watch in full screen mode.

For shorter term trading and more optimal entries there are daily reversal levels, which are available by monthly subscription. Comes as a daily html file covering over 2700 stocks and ETF. To see what you get you can pick up recent free samples on this page. Instructions for use are included. Give it a try.

Posted in Market Commentary | Tagged: , , | Leave a Comment »

 
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